Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x006d…0b79 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$163 (-21%) realized −$167 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$140
14 days−$140
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$102
crypto 17% −$32
sports 13% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-66.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -61.7% -65.3% 18% 18% -54.3%
≤30d 50 -63.0% -66.5% 16% 16% -57.1%
≤90d 50 -63.0% -66.5% 16% 16% -57.1%
all 50 -63.0% -66.5% 16% 16% -57.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.5% 16% -57.1%
10% -69.7% 16% -61.2%
15% -72.6% 14% -64.9%
20% -75.3% 12% -68.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)50 / 67
History coverage16d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $188 $199 +$11 (+6%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 13¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$12 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$24 +291%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$3 -12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +146%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $61 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $82 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 13h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 13h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.27 · official $384.10 (match) · 128 history records