Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x006e…7c46 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-3%) realized −$22 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$162
world 24% −$610
sports 24% +$665
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +29.4% +17.1% 38% 38% -14.2%
≤30d 8 +29.4% +17.1% 38% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 8 +29.4% +17.1% 38% 38% -14.2%
all 8 +29.4% +17.1% 38% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 38% -14.2%
10% +5.9% 38% -22.4%
15% -4.4% 38% -29.9%
20% -13.7% 38% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$165 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 33¢ $55 $182 +$126 (+230%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ 8¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $29 −$12 -42%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $620 −$610 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $162 +$345 +213%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$347 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $108 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 8¢ $82 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $214 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $508 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $55 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $162 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 16¢ $308 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 22¢ $226 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 10¢ $103 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 11¢ $114 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 12¢ $103 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 4¢ $36 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 21¢ $109 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 10¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.42 · official $516.59 · 27 history records