Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0071…9e4d sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$358 (+0%) realized +$358 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%156W / 36L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$849per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,230
other 1% −$1,049
world 1% +$29
crypto 0% +$27
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 0% -3.7%
≤30d 15 -9.8% -18.4% 80% 27% -40.7%
≤90d 114 -20.7% -28.2% 70% 23% -20.7%
all 192 -6.1% -15.0% 81% 30% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 30% -9.4%
10% -23.1% 16% -18.1%
15% -30.6% 8% -26.0%
20% -37.4% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,071) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$352 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses156 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage152d
Avg bet$849
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $474 −$473 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $504 −$499 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $35 +$1 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $302 +$69 +23%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $501 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 28 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 28 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 28 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 28 $231 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 28 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 28 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 26 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $18 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $151 −$150 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $1,503 +$94 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season? Apr 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Apr 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 30 $1,706 +$6 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Apr 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $474 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $504 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 81¢ $302 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 96¢ $501 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $53 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.91 · official $31.91 (match) · 530 history records