Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x0072…88b6 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 386d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$109
politics 19% −$70
sports 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +47.4% +33.3% 70% 70% +40.3%
≤30d 10 +47.4% +33.3% 70% 70% +40.3%
≤90d 10 +47.4% +33.3% 70% 70% +40.3%
all 11 +34.0% +21.2% 64% 64% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.2% 64% +0.6%
10% +9.6% 64% -9.0%
15% -1.0% 64% -17.8%
20% -10.7% 55% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage386d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $42 $38 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$14 +54%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $20 +$16 +78%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$31 +105%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.21 · official $38.21 (match) · 22 history records