Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

00 0x0074…c973 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$296 (-48%) realized −$290 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip

Net edge-61%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days−$287

14 days−$316

30 days−$316

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-60.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-59.6%	-63.5%	20%	20%	-71.2%
≤30d	6	-56.6%	-60.7%	17%	17%	-67.8%
≤90d	6	-56.6%	-60.7%	17%	17%	-67.8%
all	6	-56.6%	-60.7%	17%	17%	-67.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-60.7%	17%	-67.8%
10%	-64.5%	0%	-70.9%
15%	-67.9%	0%	-73.7%
20%	-71.0%	0%	-76.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -64% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -57% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$67 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized−$290

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage7d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	60¢	60¢	$75	$74	−$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$30	$25	−$5 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$89	+$19	+22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$32	−$6	-20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$132	−$125	-95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 24	$132	−$125	-95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$53	−$50	-94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$69	−$28	-41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	60¢	$79	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	9¢	$32	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	97¢	$108	37h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$89	38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	11¢	$26	38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	12¢	$32	38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$132	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$132	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$53	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	17¢	$41	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	19¢	$21	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$48	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.37 · official $99.38 (match) · 12 history records