Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0075…f8d7 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$72 (-23%) realized −$73 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$56
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$20
other 38% −$52
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -52.7%
≤30d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 33% -38.8%
≤90d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 33% -38.8%
all 24 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 33% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 33% -38.8%
10% -31.6% 33% -44.6%
15% -38.2% 33% -50.0%
20% -44.2% 33% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage20d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $14 +$8 +60%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $1 +$2 +197%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $25 −$16 -65%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$6 +90%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $14 −$14 -99%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 08 $6 +$8 +123%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$6 -84%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $22 −$8 -38%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $12 +$10 +82%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $12 $0 -3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $14 29h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 23¢ $3 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 20¢ $2 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 29h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 52¢ $10 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY 29¢ $5 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 18¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch BUY MIBR fe 33¢ $1 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 29h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY Spirit Academy 49¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 59¢ $6 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 24¢ $20 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Infinite 41¢ $0 12d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 61¢ $15 12d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Infinite 39¢ $8 12d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 46¢ $10 12d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $5 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 50¢ $4 13d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 52¢ $7 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $5 13d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato BUY Lisa Pigato 76¢ $14 18d
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 100¢ $14 18d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Astralis 10¢ $1 18d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $7 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.68 · official $53.68 (match) · 46 history records