Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x007a…8283
weather · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage55d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C or higher on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on April 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 21? No 98¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 31 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 27? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 18? May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 17? May 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16? May 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 15? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 14? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on May 6? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 5? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma May 04 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$17
politics 3% +$2
world 2% −$13
other 1% +$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 46m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $11 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $14 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 2¢ $0 9d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 98¢ $13 9d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 10d
Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e SELL No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 12% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 33 -2.1% -11.4% 18% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 90 -30.6% -37.2% 13% 0% -12.4%
all 90 -30.6% -37.2% 13% 0% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 0% -12.4%
10% -43.2% 0% -20.8%
15% -48.7% 0% -28.5%
20% -53.8% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.85 · official $70.85 (match) · 283 history records