Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
00 0x007f…58da crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$397 (-2%) realized −$507 · open +$110
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,075
7 days−$3,075
14 days−$2,872
30 days−$2,891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$723
other 25% +$439
world 4% −$715
sports 4% +$275
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -50.8% -55.5% 19% 14% -49.9%
≤30d 23 -41.6% -47.1% 22% 17% -46.1%
≤90d 34 -17.8% -25.6% 44% 41% -19.6%
all 39 +2.2% -7.6% 51% 49% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 49% -14.8%
10% -16.4% 31% -23.0%
15% -24.5% 23% -30.4%
20% -31.9% 23% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$591) neutral
Persistence
early +55% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$218 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,194
Realized−$507
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions11
Markets (closed)39 / 50
History coverage146d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $300 $414 +$114 (+38%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $150 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,381 −$14 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,553 +$412 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$5 -25%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$13 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8? Jun 19 $1,565 −$1,565 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Jun 19 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 19 $690 −$690 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 29 Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $303 +$35 +12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $158 +$203 +129%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $106 −$18 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $323 +$385 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $295 +$46 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $260 +$52 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $662 +$395 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $591 +$116 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $310 +$309 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Apr 07 $925 −$589 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $810 +$180 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $1,350 +$258 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $565 +$99 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $480 +$109 +23%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 9-15? Feb 13 $288 +$213 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $236 +$59 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15? Feb 11 $100 +$144 +144%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 9 Feb 09 $47 +$58 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $66 +$214 +324%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 0m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $159 0m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $106 0m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $207 1m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $106 35m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $106 48m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $106 49m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $529 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $104 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $210 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $11 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,367 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,381 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 15h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $96 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $96 15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $107 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $106 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $888 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $283 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $168 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $18 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 16h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $42 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $174 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,194.42 · official $1,194.56 (match) · 140 history records