Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x0084…ffa0
sports · 100 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$82 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$98 · open −$88
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$279
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses60 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions26
Markets (closed)74 / 100
History coverage28d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 26 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$25
14 days+$61
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 34¢ $11 $23 +$12 (+108%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 70¢ 38¢ $29 $15 −$13 (-47%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) T1 75¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 81¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 38¢ $10 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 26¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Gen.G 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 76¢ 36¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-56%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+23%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 55¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$9 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $13 −$10 -79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$12 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$8 +77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$7 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $35 +$9 +25%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 07 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $8 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% +$20
other 13% +$5
world 11% −$14
politics 2% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $4 31m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $5 53m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 47¢ $5 55m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 77¢ $5 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 80¢ $5 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 67¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 5h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 75¢ $10 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $5 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $5 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $5 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 59¢ $5 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 73¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 53¢ $10 13h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 85¢ $5 24h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $3 24h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $5 25h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $3 25h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.8% -7.9% 73% 69% -5.0%
≤30d 74 +13.7% +2.8% 81% 76% +2.9%
≤90d 74 +13.7% +2.8% 81% 76% +2.9%
all 74 +13.7% +2.8% 81% 76% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 76% +2.9%
10% -7.0% 55% -6.9%
15% -16.0% 38% -15.9%
20% -24.2% 19% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.97 · official $277.35 (match) · 262 history records