Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0085…a8fc crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$720 (+14%) realized +$676 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%32W / 31L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day83.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$660
crypto 6% −$56
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 41% +2.8%
≤30d 63 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 41% +2.8%
≤90d 63 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 41% +2.8%
all 63 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 41% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 41% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 30% -7.0%
15% -29.7% 22% -16.0%
20% -36.6% 17% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$945
Realized+$676
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses32 / 31
Open positions10
Markets (closed)63 / 73
History coverage6d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day83.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $180 $192 +$12 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $135 $137 +$2 (+2%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 56¢ $126 $120 −$5 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+17%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 26¢ 48¢ $13 $24 +$11 (+83%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 22 $177 +$99 +56%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $463 +$56 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $55 −$11 -21%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $975 +$246 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $244 −$55 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $165 −$11 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $765 +$189 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $4 27m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $4 30m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $118 31m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 73¢ $276 39m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 75¢ $15 40m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 75¢ $8 55m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 38¢ $40 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 38¢ $340 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $60 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $106 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 52¢ $130 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $154 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $944.87 · official $944.87 (match) · 528 history records