Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x0086…1b8c other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7,623 (-18%) realized +$7,645 · open −$15,268
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,046per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$25,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$14,261
other 1% +$66
sports 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.4% +8.0% 52% 52% +17.0%
≤30d 32 +15.2% +4.2% 50% 50% +117.2%
≤90d 32 +15.2% +4.2% 50% 50% +117.2%
all 32 +15.2% +4.2% 50% 50% +117.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 50% +117.2%
10% -5.8% 47% +96.4%
15% -14.9% 47% +77.4%
20% -23.2% 34% +60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +140% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +140% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$8 · ×9.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.32 per $1 lost it wins $9.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$25,107
Realized+$7,645
Unrealized−$15,268
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1,046
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +162%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +36%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$29 -64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$32 +166%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 09 $418 +$1,007 +241%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 17¢ $98 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 16¢ $310 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 25¢ $309 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 28¢ $309 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 46¢ $204 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 45¢ $511 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 43¢ $511 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 45¢ $511 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 41¢ $1,023 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 53¢ $7,131 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,107.45 · official $25,252.42 (match) · 110 history records