Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
00 0x0087…0863 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+6%) realized +$52 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$95
sports 12% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.4% -13.5% 67% 56% -3.1%
≤30d 9 -4.4% -13.5% 67% 56% -3.1%
≤90d 9 -4.4% -13.5% 67% 56% -3.1%
all 9 -4.4% -13.5% 67% 56% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 56% -3.1%
10% -21.8% 44% -12.3%
15% -29.3% 44% -20.8%
20% -36.3% 33% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$50 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 57¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $83 +$8 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$50 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 +$30 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$18 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $83 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $52 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $50 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.69 · official $197.69 (match) · 19 history records