Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x0088…88d9 weather 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%168W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$2
world 4% +$2
politics 3% +$1
other 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 95 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 168 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses168 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage188d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 21? Yes 100¢ 94¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 31? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 23? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 17? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump Leave China after May 18? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 2? May 02 $25 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 28? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 27? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26? Apr 26 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $27 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 40h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $26 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $26 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 11d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 13d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 15d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $26 22d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 23d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 23d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $26 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.04 · official $25.04 (match) · 338 history records