Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
00 0x0089…e95a sports 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,592 (+3%) realized +$1,598 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%98W / 59L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$4
other 36% +$388
sports 13% +$1,122
economics 7% −$41
world 3% +$81
crypto 2% +$34
culture 1% −$22
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.2% -28.7% 44% 44% -7.4%
≤30d 10 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 50% -7.2%
≤90d 46 -4.3% -13.4% 41% 33% -9.9%
all 157 -1.5% -10.8% 62% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 45% -7.1%
10% -19.4% 31% -16.0%
15% -27.2% 25% -24.1%
20% -34.3% 17% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$1,497
Realized+$1,598
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses98 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions15
Markets (closed)157 / 172
History coverage267d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $498 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 90¢ $96 $90 −$6 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 70¢ 97¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+38%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 87¢ 26¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $647 +$353 +55%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $235 −$230 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $549 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $203 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $83 −$80 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,294 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,194 −$5 -0%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$4 +13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,201 −$4 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 09 $2,251 −$4 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,261 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,251 −$5 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $2,200 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,200 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,200 −$3 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $1,300 +$4 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $996 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,313 −$2 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,316 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,318 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $2,320 −$2 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 20 $69 +$31 +45%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 20 $86 +$14 +16%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,791 $0 -0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 12 $5 $0 +3%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 12 $50 +$14 +29%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 01 $330 −$326 -99%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $11 +$8 +73%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $492 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 30 $898 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $6 −$5 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 30 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Mar 30 $44 +$6 +15%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 30 $47 +$13 +28%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 30 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $283 +$16 +6%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $10 +$3 +32%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $1,578 +$86 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $32 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $171 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $235 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $647 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $122 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $122 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $47 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $100 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $111 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,497.37 · official $1,497.36 (match) · 613 history records