Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x008a…1b5b crypto 971 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$507 (-3%) realized −$507 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%327W / 630L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$161
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +30.8% +18.3% 55% 55% +20.6%
≤30d 146 +30.2% +17.8% 58% 58% +20.4%
≤90d 146 +30.2% +17.8% 58% 58% +20.4%
all 957 +4.0% -5.9% 34% 34% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 34% -12.8%
10% -14.9% 34% -21.2%
15% -23.1% 34% -28.8%
20% -30.7% 33% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses327 / 630
Open positions1
Markets (closed)957 / 971
History coverage152d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 30¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$8 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$13 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.99 · official $6.79 · 1996 history records