trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -45.6% | -50.8% | 29% | 29% | -56.0% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -31.0% | -37.6% | 44% | 32% | -14.0% |
| all | 34 | -22.8% | -30.2% | 53% | 38% | -12.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.2% | 38% | -12.5% |
| 10% | -36.9% | 32% | -20.8% |
| 15% | -43.0% | 21% | -28.5% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 15% | -35.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 19¢ | 19¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? | Yes | 68¢ | 54¢ | $50 | $40 | −$10 (-20%) |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | Yes | 32¢ | 26¢ | $40 | $32 | −$8 (-20%) |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Anthropic | 76¢ | 74¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? | Jun 23 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? | Jun 17 | $40 | +$10 | +25% |
| Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? | Jun 17 | $41 | −$40 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? | Jun 17 | $41 | −$40 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? | Jun 17 | $62 | −$60 | -97% |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $54 | +$26 | +49% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $190 | −$90 | -47% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET | Jun 03 | $26 | +$13 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | Jun 03 | $26 | +$23 | +90% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 01 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | May 31 | $26 | −$2 | -8% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 | May 31 | $33 | −$32 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 | May 31 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 | May 14 | $55 | +$45 | +83% |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | May 14 | $200 | +$86 | +43% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 20 | $500 | +$9 | +2% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 20 | $142 | −$141 | -99% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 18 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | Apr 18 | $110 | +$31 | +28% |
| Spurs vs. Bucks | Apr 18 | $300 | +$19 | +6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Apr 18 | $200 | +$193 | +97% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 14 | $1,000 | +$53 | +5% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Apr 13 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 | Mar 28 | $350 | −$297 | -85% |
| Clippers vs. Pacers | Mar 28 | $200 | +$56 | +28% |
| Magic vs. Cavaliers | Mar 25 | $200 | +$53 | +26% |
| Bucks vs. Clippers | Mar 24 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Cavaliers vs. Mavericks | Mar 16 | $1,000 | +$38 | +4% |
| Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5 | Mar 16 | $70 | +$76 | +108% |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic | Mar 11 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Pistons | Mar 07 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Mar 07 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Mavericks vs. Celtics | Mar 07 | $50 | +$6 | +12% |