trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 11¢ | 23¢ | $7,478 | $15,777 | +$8,299 (+111%) |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $6,046 | $5,395 | −$651 (-11%) |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $6,182 | $0 | −$6,182 (-100%) |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $17,313 | $0 | −$17,313 (-100%) |
| Democratic sweep? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $3,500 | $0 | −$3,500 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 01 | $5,600 | +$3,375 | +60% |
| Democratic sweep? | Nov 04 | $3,500 | −$3,500 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 02 | $6,182 | −$6,182 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 09 | $17,315 | −$17,313 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Aug 22 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | May 08 | $42,799 | −$42,799 | -100% |
| Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 25 | $3,041 | −$2,956 | -97% |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 23 | $4,329 | +$4,014 | +93% |
| Super Bowl LIX Winner | Feb 10 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 10 | $1,500 | +$1,395 | +93% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 26 | $13,694 | −$7,708 | -56% |
| Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense? | Jan 07 | $14,495 | +$1,314 | +9% |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? | Jan 04 | $2,668 | −$2,668 | -100% |
| Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? | Dec 02 | $43,624 | +$267,588 | +613% |
| Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General? | Nov 21 | $3,870 | +$80 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 15 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 40% | 27% | +98.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -8.5% | 27% | +98.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -17.2% | 27% | +79.2% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 27% | +61.9% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 27% | +46.0% |