Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0091…3223 other 27 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$26 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$191
sports 35% +$180
crypto 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +39.4% +26.1% 28% 28% -6.7%
≤30d 25 +39.4% +26.1% 28% 28% -6.7%
≤90d 25 +39.4% +26.1% 28% 28% -6.7%
all 25 +39.4% +26.1% 28% 28% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.1% 28% -6.7%
10% +14.0% 24% -15.6%
15% +3.0% 24% -23.8%
20% -7.1% 16% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +154% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$20 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage7d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $80 +$33 +42%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$97 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $6 +$29 +504%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$190 +1843%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $235 −$99 -42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 5h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $19 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $19 31h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $20 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $13 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $114 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $80 43h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $15 43h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 45h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $146 45h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $49 47h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $9 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 34¢ $42 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.35 · official $18.35 (match) · 43 history records