Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0094…1819 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-3%) realized −$92 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$15
other 13% −$24
sports 8% −$426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 50% -17.0%
≤30d 32 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 32 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 50% -17.0%
all 32 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 50% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 50% -17.0%
10% -11.6% 50% -24.9%
15% -20.2% 50% -32.2%
20% -28.0% 31% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$150 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $300 $254 −$46 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $219 −$89 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $90 −$60 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $88 +$80 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $207 −$200 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $305 +$113 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $256 +$117 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $259 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $256 +$139 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $263 +$169 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $256 +$127 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $205 +$100 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$64 +62%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $228 −$226 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$47 +46%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$222 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$152 +573%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$159 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$166 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$49 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $205 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $257 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $259 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $256 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $256 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $257 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $257 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $256 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $205 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 28h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $228 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.06 · official $254.06 (match) · 62 history records