Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x0096…2a83 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,165 (-14%) realized −$1,165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$77
14 days−$27
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$955
other 8% +$121
world 5% −$368
politics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.6% +8.2% 33% 33% -55.9%
≤30d 33 -16.2% -24.2% 39% 36% -8.6%
≤90d 77 -27.4% -34.3% 34% 32% -23.2%
all 78 -28.3% -35.2% 33% 32% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 32% -23.4%
10% -41.4% 32% -30.7%
15% -47.0% 32% -37.4%
20% -52.2% 31% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$81 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage246d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$53 +259%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $43 +$66 +154%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $172 +$136 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$2 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 −$6 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $194 +$118 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$119 -90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $502 +$285 +57%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $199 −$196 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$18 +116%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $41 −$10 -24%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$12 +114%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $51 +$44 +88%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $13 +$18 +139%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$23 +75%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $108 +$135 +125%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $56 −$55 -99%
Valorant: University War vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 02 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $33 −$33 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 28 $70 −$69 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Amer May 28 $41 +$42 +103%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner May 17 $179 −$176 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $278 −$275 -99%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $392 −$367 -94%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 16 $33 −$33 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $57 +$37 +64%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner May 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner May 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner May 15 $298 +$178 +60%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $129 −$62 -48%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner May 15 $32 +$34 +105%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner May 15 $200 −$167 -84%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $119 −$117 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner May 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner May 14 $28 +$19 +67%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner May 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $73 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $31 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $53 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $49 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 18¢ $31 7d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $109 8d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 39¢ $43 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $309 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $172 8d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 Esports 52¢ $52 8d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 49¢ $51 8d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 13¢ $21 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $8 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $95 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $312 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $132 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $194 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $787 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $502 9d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 30¢ $40 10d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $7 10d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $151 10d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $51 10d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $50 10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 11d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $33 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records