Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0098…71e0 sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$490 (-15%) realized −$498 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%114W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$516
14 days−$516
30 days−$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$554
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +18.1% +6.9% 63% 58% -26.5%
≤30d 178 +15.8% +4.8% 64% 59% -24.6%
≤90d 178 +15.8% +4.8% 64% 59% -24.6%
all 178 +15.8% +4.8% 64% 59% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 59% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 48% -31.8%
15% -14.4% 39% -38.4%
20% -22.8% 28% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$498
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses114 / 64
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions9
Markets (closed)178 / 187
History coverage19d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 46¢ 74¢ $23 $38 +$14 (+61%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 43¢ 64¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+49%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Boston Red Sox 57¢ 80¢ $22 $31 +$9 (+40%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 67¢ 94¢ $21 $29 +$8 (+40%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Texas Rangers 57¢ 84¢ $19 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Texas Rangers 49¢ 34¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-31%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Texas Rangers 48¢ 68¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+42%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 54¢ 66¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 57¢ 26¢ $37 $17 −$20 (-54%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Over 58¢ 36¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-39%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 67¢ 74¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 36¢ 48¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+33%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 38¢ 16¢ $22 $10 −$13 (-57%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Texas Rangers 39¢ 20¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-47%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 56¢ 52¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 50¢ 26¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 34¢ 6¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +182%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $81 +$54 +67%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $32 +$15 +46%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $15 +$10 +68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $102 −$14 -14%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +105%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +81%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $39 +$20 +52%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $18 +$6 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -19%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $17 +$8 +48%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $40 +$48 +119%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$3 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $19 +$83 +431%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $26 +$9 +33%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $64 +$63 +98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $4 +$2 +53%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $4 +$3 +79%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $8 +$5 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $164 −$120 -73%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $4 +$2 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $1 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 75¢ $9 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 35¢ $2 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $3 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $3 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $3 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 39¢ $2 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 38m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 38m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 38m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 38m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 59¢ $4 38m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $2 55m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $2 56m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $4 56m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 57m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $2 58m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $3 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $2 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $2 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $3 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 64¢ $5 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.80 · official $316.25 (match) · 674 history records