Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x009b…9b71 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-39%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-83.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -81.3% -83.0% 14% 14% -65.8%
≤30d 7 -81.3% -83.0% 14% 14% -65.8%
≤90d 7 -81.3% -83.0% 14% 14% -65.8%
all 7 -81.3% -83.0% 14% 14% -65.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.0% 14% -65.8%
10% -84.7% 14% -69.1%
15% -86.1% 0% -72.0%
20% -87.5% 0% -74.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Álex Grimaldo: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Pedri: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -94%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$4 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Álex Grimaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.65 · official $18.65 (match) · 14 history records