Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x009c…049b sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$304 (-15%) realized −$302 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$289
14 days−$318
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -21.2% -28.7% 41% 41% -24.7%
≤30d 35 -17.4% -25.2% 43% 43% -24.7%
≤90d 35 -17.4% -25.2% 43% 43% -24.7%
all 35 -17.4% -25.2% 43% 43% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 43% -24.7%
10% -32.4% 43% -31.9%
15% -38.9% 43% -38.5%
20% -44.9% 43% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$49 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage13d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs largadosypelados 44¢ 43¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 27 $41 +$31 +76%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $81 +$64 +79%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 26 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 26 $41 +$41 +101%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: CC.FE (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 25 $41 +$30 +73%
Map Handicap: TL.A (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $40 −$22 -55%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $81 −$4 -5%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 25 $41 +$48 +119%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 25 $61 −$20 -33%
Map Handicap: UNO (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$59 +146%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun Jun 24 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $40 +$26 +65%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $98 +$67 +68%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $41 +$29 +71%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J Jun 23 $41 +$30 +74%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $41 +$28 +70%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $39 +$39 +101%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World BUY largadosypelados 44¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY largadosypelados 56¢ $41 21h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 47¢ $41 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $145 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $81 26h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY Bounty Hunters Esports 53¢ $101 27h
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $41 36h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 52¢ $41 43h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 48¢ $41 43h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 61¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 59¢ $142 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY shimmer 43¢ $41 2d
Map Handicap: CC.FE (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 48¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Walczaki 39¢ $41 2d
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY Yellow Submarine 49¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham SELL Isurus 50¢ $77 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 53¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 51¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 51¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 57¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 39¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 85¢ $40 3d
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 45¢ $41 3d
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle Esports 37¢ $20 3d
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) SELL Inner Circle Esports 34¢ $0 3d
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) SELL Inner Circle Esports 36¢ $39 3d
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle Esports 36¢ $41 3d
Map Handicap: TL.A (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid Academy 62¢ $101 3d
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.08 · official $73.08 (match) · 59 history records