Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x009f…d868 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$3
finance 11% +$1
other 11% −$10
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.0% 64% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.0% 64% 0% -10.0%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -11.3%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage461d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $66 −$5 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $32 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $36 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $71 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $34 +$2 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $21 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $9 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 19 $12 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 13h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $24 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $10 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $35 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 62¢ $11 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 62¢ $25 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $34 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.34 · official $29.34 (match) · 94 history records