Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x00a7…bf3d other 89 markets active 7h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$12
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$9
sports 30% −$53
crypto 3% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +13.2% +2.4% 52% 50% -11.4%
≤30d 78 +12.9% +2.1% 46% 44% -14.2%
≤90d 78 +12.9% +2.1% 46% 44% -14.2%
all 81 +11.6% +0.9% 46% 43% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 43% -14.5%
10% -8.7% 40% -22.7%
15% -17.5% 37% -30.2%
20% -25.6% 30% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)81 / 89
History coverage613d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$13 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$11 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$29 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$17 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 32h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 32h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 32h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 32h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 32h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.66 · official $76.66 (match) · 135 history records