Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00ae…d19b other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$1
world 31% $0
politics 19% +$1
sports 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 28 -1.9% -11.2% 61% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage471d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $12 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $24 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $9 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 15 $12 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $3 $0 -12%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 27 $11 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $14 $0 +3%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $40 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $40 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $29 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $22 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $37 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $37 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 29d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 97¢ $1 342d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 94¢ $11 360d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 93¢ $12 380d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 90¢ $12 380d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $12 380d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 98¢ $6 380d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 98¢ $6 380d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi BUY No 98¢ $12 381d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $2 381d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $10 381d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $12 383d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.33 · official $39.33 (match) · 73 history records