Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00af…36a0 weather 511 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-2%) realized −$120 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%457W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$43
14 days−$3
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$26
crypto 4% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -1.5% -10.9% 97% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 344 -1.8% -11.1% 96% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 489 -2.8% -12.1% 93% 6% -11.3%
all 489 -2.8% -12.1% 93% 6% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -11.3%
10% -20.5% 1% -19.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses457 / 32
Open positions22
Markets (closed)489 / 511
History coverage48d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? No 97¢ 95¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? No 98¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? No 97¢ 90¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $58 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.87 · official $457.87 (match) · 995 history records