Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x00b0…6cfe sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-8%) realized −$99 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$161
14 days+$161
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$229
other 34% −$30
world 3% +$52
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +26.7% +14.7% 52% 52% +24.4%
≤30d 23 +26.7% +14.7% 52% 52% +24.4%
≤90d 24 +35.3% +22.4% 54% 54% +33.1%
all 24 +35.3% +22.4% 54% 54% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 54% +33.1%
10% +10.7% 54% +20.4%
15% +0.0% 54% +8.8%
20% -9.8% 46% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 43
History coverage172d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 94¢ $20 $70 +$50 (+250%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$23 +230%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 $0 -9%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $15 +$25 +162%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$30 +120%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 25 $10 +$24 +232%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Bosnia-Herzegovina Jun 24 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +56%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Por Jun 23 $26 +$60 +233%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Alger Jun 23 $35 +$31 +87%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 22 $22 +$52 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $2 8m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $7 9m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 31m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 32m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $2 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 28¢ $5 3h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O BUY 39¢ $15 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $15 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY 48¢ $30 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Cô BUY 31¢ $23 11h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 67¢ $20 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Unite BUY $10 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Spain BUY $11 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 45¢ $25 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.46 · official $105.69 · 69 history records