Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
00 0x00b4…87bf sports 448 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-1%) realized −$143 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%286W / 158L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$478
14 days−$1,182
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$195
other 3% −$136
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -19.0% -26.7% 55% 35% -15.7%
≤30d 313 -2.3% -11.6% 61% 50% -11.3%
≤90d 444 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 52% -10.5%
all 444 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 52% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 52% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 38% -19.1%
15% -27.7% 28% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses286 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions4
Markets (closed)444 / 448
History coverage42d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Australia (-1.5) United States 95¢ 94¢ $375 $373 −$2 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 70¢ 47¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Jun 19 $428 +$9 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Set Handicap: Frech (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 16 $27 +$13 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -73%
Set Handicap: Piros (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) Jun 16 $13 +$7 +48%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $70 +$16 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 +$2 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $510 −$59 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $25 +$19 +73%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$11 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $60 −$60 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $457 −$165 -36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $237 −$88 -37%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 −$60 -84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$10 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $490 −$46 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 +$12 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $501 +$20 +4%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $87 +$13 +14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $865 +$36 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $601 +$6 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $801 +$25 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $93 +$8 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $570 +$30 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$15 +76%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$29 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $93 +$36 +39%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Nuno Borges vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$26 +129%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $35 +$15 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $240 +$12 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $30 +$7 +22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 95¢ $376 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $10 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 13h
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) BUY Korea Republic 98¢ $428 17h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 42¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $2 3d
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 45¢ $20 3d
Set Handicap: Frech (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) BUY Lys 66¢ $27 3d
Set Handicap: Piros (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) BUY Galan 67¢ $10 3d
Set Handicap: Piros (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) BUY Galan 66¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $8 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $16 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 56¢ $11 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $16 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 46¢ $68 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $248 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $27 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $35 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $144 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $5 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.18 · official $445.18 (match) · 1072 history records