Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00b6…cd1f crypto 954 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+0%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%461W / 492L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$16
14 days+$56
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$478
crypto 8% −$86
sports 6% −$52
other 4% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -3.7% -12.9% 72% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 97 -2.7% -12.0% 85% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 953 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 34% -9.1%
all 953 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 34% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 34% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 30% -17.8%
15% -35.7% 26% -25.7%
20% -42.0% 24% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses461 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)953 / 954
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 953 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $937 +$73 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $709 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $483 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $592 +$8 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$7 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $598 +$6 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $864 +$35 +4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,232 +$71 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $276 −$226 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $92 −$75 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $88 −$63 -71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $536 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $680 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $498 +$20 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $92 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $965 +$45 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $211 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 +$17 +605%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $693 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $499 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $300 +$3 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $599 +$8 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $597 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $143 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $600 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $602 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $788 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $937 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $161 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $555 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $60 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $549 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $49 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $78 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $102 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $23 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $814 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $83 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $12 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $779 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records