Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00bb…2eff politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$2
sports 24% −$1
other 8% $0
economics 5% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -3.0% -12.2% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage223d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 31 $81 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $83 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $167 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $84 $0 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $80 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $83 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $85 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $81 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 21? Nov 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 21d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 106d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 121d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 129d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 140d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $81 141d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 98¢ $81 142d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 143d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 145d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $82 146d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $82 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $81 148d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C BUY Yes 0¢ $1 149d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $81 149d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $81 150d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $84 151d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $84 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 154d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $84 155d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $84 156d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 157d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $82 159d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $83 160d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $83 162d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 162d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $81 164d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $84 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $1.36 (match) · 165 history records