Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00bd…d945 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-4%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$53
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$5
other 9% −$18
world 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.3% -18.9% 48% 48% -21.6%
≤30d 37 -5.1% -14.2% 49% 49% -14.6%
≤90d 37 -5.1% -14.2% 49% 49% -14.6%
all 37 -5.1% -14.2% 49% 49% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 49% -14.6%
10% -22.4% 46% -22.8%
15% -29.9% 46% -30.2%
20% -36.8% 43% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 60¢ 58¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $22 +$12 +55%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $15 +$7 +43%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$15 -60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $17 −$13 -74%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 +$11 +76%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$10 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 +$21 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$16 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 −$7 -54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$14 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$10 -67%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$19 +122%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$22 +145%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 60¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $20 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $17 11h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $22 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $10 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 17h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $10 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $30 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $2 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $4 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 63¢ $4 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 63¢ $6 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $23 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $17 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $14 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $5 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $14 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $16 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $26 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $15 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $42 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.20 · official $49.20 (match) · 66 history records