Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c4…e285 sports 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%35W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$422
14 days+$380
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$435
other 38% +$574
world 4% −$137
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +13.8% +2.9% 50% 42% +1.8%
≤30d 39 +4.1% -5.9% 46% 41% -5.0%
≤90d 83 -5.5% -14.5% 37% 33% -10.3%
all 90 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 33% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 33% -9.9%
10% -22.1% 32% -18.5%
15% -29.7% 29% -26.4%
20% -36.6% 26% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$33 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 55
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage234d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $133 +$60 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $184 −$15 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $210 +$240 +114%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $127 +$82 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $456 −$131 -29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $132 −$72 -55%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $327 +$202 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $221 +$106 +48%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $145 +$77 +53%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 −$12 -32%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $92 +$53 +57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$32 +64%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $283 −$197 -70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $193 −$21 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in Jun 16 $4 +$10 +269%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $234 −$136 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $208 +$185 +89%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$22 -75%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $43 +$2 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$26 -77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$20 -78%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$6 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $16 +$9 +60%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $27 −$11 -41%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $24 −$18 -74%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $62 −$27 -44%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $86 −$46 -53%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $56 +$7 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $35 +$44 +128%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $19 +$16 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $27 −$18 -66%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 30 $98 −$79 -80%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $101 −$70 -69%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $134 −$51 -38%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $39 −$3 -7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $110 −$12 -11%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $88 +$26 +29%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $249 −$204 -82%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Apr 15 $50 −$8 -15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $87 +$143 +165%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $66 −$56 -84%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $81 −$14 -17%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $56 +$25 +44%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $193 5m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 68¢ $133 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL Team Nemesis 72¢ $133 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 73¢ $137 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL Team Nemesis 49¢ $36 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 61¢ $47 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $210 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $212 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $213 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $127 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 50¢ $325 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $456 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $60 37h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $132 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $529 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $327 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $221 3d
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma SELL Noah Karma 100¢ $221 4d
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Noah Karma 65¢ $145 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $92 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $49 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $171 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL 45¢ $172 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in SELL $13 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records