Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c5…b5e9 sports 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-9%) realized −$246 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%125W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$143
14 days−$215
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -19.1% -26.8% 48% 48% -17.3%
≤30d 150 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 47% -20.1%
≤90d 161 -19.7% -27.4% 47% 47% -20.8%
all 249 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 50% -18.7%
10% -29.0% 47% -26.5%
15% -35.9% 38% -33.6%
20% -42.1% 26% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$246
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses125 / 124
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)249 / 255
History coverage139d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 62¢ 62¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Marie Bouzkova 87¢ 84¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $7 +$8 +111%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $52 +$11 +21%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $16 +$9 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $28 −$8 -28%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $16 +$11 +70%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $12 +$9 +76%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $42 −$42 -99%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $13 +$13 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $47 +$14 +29%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $39 +$11 +27%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $62 +$35 +57%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $13 +$6 +44%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $44 +$10 +23%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $8 +$4 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $37 +$13 +36%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $46 −$12 -25%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $12 +$9 +73%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 16 $22 −$7 -30%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $29 +$15 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $6 21m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $35 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $5 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Marie Bouzkova 87¢ $24 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $23 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 7h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $6 9h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill BUY Otto Virtanen 82¢ $52 12h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $42 12h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 68¢ $5 13h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $5 13h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 63¢ $5 13h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $7 13h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 63¢ $10 14h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 72¢ $5 14h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 56¢ $12 15h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $16 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $5 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $13 22h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $5 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 69¢ $23 28h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 77¢ $47 29h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 78¢ $39 30h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 69¢ $13 32h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 41¢ $6 38h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 66¢ $8 39h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $7 40h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 46¢ $6 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.16 · official $77.09 (match) · 479 history records