Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
00 0x00c6…8afe other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+9%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$24
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$33
sports 27% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.4% -21.7% 65% 41% +0.9%
≤30d 24 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 46% +1.8%
≤90d 24 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 46% +1.8%
all 24 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 46% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 46% +1.8%
10% -14.8% 33% -8.0%
15% -23.0% 33% -16.9%
20% -30.6% 25% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Norway (-4.5) Jun 23 $11 +$1 +9%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$43 +61%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -89%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +55%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$8 -71%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$2 +84%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$8 -74%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +227%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$6 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Spread: Norway (-4.5) BUY Senegal 97¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-4.5) BUY Senegal 91¢ $10 1h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 88¢ $11 5h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Iraq 75¢ $10 5h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 10¢ $1 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 86¢ $5 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 80¢ $2 29h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 86¢ $5 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $67 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $1 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 94¢ $5 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 42¢ $0 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 42¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records