Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

00 0x00c6…d58d other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$898 (-31%) realized −$898 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate39%7W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$163per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-38.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-31.5%	-38.0%	39%	33%	-38.3%
≤30d	18	-31.5%	-38.0%	39%	33%	-38.3%
≤90d	18	-31.5%	-38.0%	39%	33%	-38.3%
all	18	-31.5%	-38.0%	39%	33%	-38.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.0%	33%	-38.3%
10%	-44.0%	22%	-44.2%
15%	-49.4%	17%	-49.6%
20%	-54.3%	11%	-54.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late -38% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$121 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.3 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$898

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses7 / 11

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage7d

Avg bet$163

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 20	$36	−$35	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 20	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 20	$91	+$19	+21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$121	−$1	-1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$195	−$179	-92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$203	−$95	-47%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$441	+$36	+8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$202	+$139	+69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$232	+$88	+38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$131	−$131	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$242	−$242	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$245	−$245	-100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$251	−$4	-2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$132	+$118	+89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$3	+$1	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$111	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$40	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	66¢	$120	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	2¢	$8	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	2¢	$8	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	21¢	$92	4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	26¢	$97	14h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$204	14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	28¢	$11	14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$477	16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	95¢	$240	18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$201	18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$342	19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$320	22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	83¢	$131	23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	32¢	$41	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	28¢	$6	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records