Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
00 0x00cb…3992 sports 1411 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,213 (-9%) realized −$5,828 · open −$385
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate87%1227W / 179L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$373est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,476
7 days−$452
14 days−$3,502
30 days−$3,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$5,081
other 16% +$347
world 3% −$261
crypto 2% −$62
politics 1% −$29
finance 0% $0
tech 0% +$4
economics 0% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +12.7% +2.0% 64% 59% -11.2%
≤30d 83 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 51% -20.7%
≤90d 1406 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 9% -15.8%
all 1406 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 9% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 9% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 3% -23.9%
15% -26.4% 2% -31.2%
20% -33.7% 1% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$77 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1,115
Realized−$5,828
Unrealized−$385
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1227 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1406 / 1411
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 74¢ 69¢ $600 $559 −$41 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 66¢ 52¢ $700 $555 −$145 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 49¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $65 +$435 +669%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $856 +$307 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $733 +$115 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $520 +$286 +55%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $306 −$300 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 +$325 +159%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $320 −$320 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Ghana vs. Pana Jun 18 $107 +$117 +110%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $390 +$309 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $112 +$202 +180%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $462 +$29 +6%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $181 +$13 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $345 +$116 +34%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $444 +$82 +18%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $397 +$48 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $277 +$120 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $500 −$494 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $500 −$491 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $802 +$207 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $337 +$764 +226%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $203 +$135 +66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $156 −$153 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $124 +$32 +26%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $162 −$159 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $490 −$490 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $730 −$730 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $528 +$72 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $407 +$569 +140%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $456 +$156 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $311 +$142 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $366 +$400 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $457 −$457 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,502 +$59 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $998 +$729 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $154 −$151 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $142 −$8 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $165 −$144 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $304 −$148 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $220 +$96 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $699 +$163 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $605 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 49¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $504 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $856 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $848 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $733 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 64¢ $520 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $306 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $13 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $19 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $288 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Afric BUY 35¢ $102 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 38¢ $204 24h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY 55¢ $390 40h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Ghana vs. Pana BUY 47¢ $107 40h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $112 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 54¢ $389 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,115.07 · official $1,115.16 (match) · 3500 history records