Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
00 0x00cf…d102 sports 1142 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,989 (+3%) realized +$4,984 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%529W / 612L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$1,099est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$620
7 days+$1,770
14 days+$1,020
30 days+$1,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,857
other 2% +$71
world 0% −$80
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +18.6% +7.3% 25% 23% +25.1%
≤30d 73 +14.1% +3.2% 27% 26% +10.2%
≤90d 563 -24.6% -31.8% 29% 28% -23.8%
all 1141 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 46% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 46% -7.4%
10% -19.7% 45% -16.3%
15% -27.4% 43% -24.4%
20% -34.5% 39% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$125 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$4,984
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses529 / 612
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,099
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1141 / 1142
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$145
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $230 $235 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $67 −$65 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $38 +$462 +1215%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $40 −$39 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $67 −$65 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $62 −$18 -29%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $67 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $62 +$438 +712%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $77 −$48 -62%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $72 +$428 +596%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $72 −$48 -66%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $68 −$66 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $173 +$327 +188%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $56 +$245 +434%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $66 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$125 +244%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $72 −$13 -19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $128 −$46 -36%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $71 −$9 -13%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 +$3 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $107 +$393 +365%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $153 +$347 +226%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $46 −$7 -16%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $118 +$382 +325%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $153 −$85 -56%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $128 −$125 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $30 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $20 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $20 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 9¢ $44 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 13¢ $63 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 10h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $68 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 11h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $46 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.00 · official $235.00 (match) · 3500 history records