Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
00 0x00cf…1943 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$139 (-24%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$38
crypto 18% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 60% -31.4%
≤30d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 60% -31.4%
≤90d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 60% -31.4%
all 5 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 60% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 60% -31.4%
10% -31.9% 40% -38.0%
15% -38.5% 40% -44.0%
20% -44.5% 20% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$129 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$15 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $158 −$157 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $71 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $55 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $158 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records