Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00cf…e99c other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$1
world 25% +$3
sports 19% −$2
politics 17% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.7% -7.0% 33% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 50 -0.8% -10.2% 32% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage302d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $57 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $22 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Nov 20 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $6 +$1 +12%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President Oct 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 29 $10 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Sep 03 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Aug 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29? Aug 27 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $31 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $6 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $6 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $18 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $28 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $6 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $23 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 21h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $9 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $19 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $27 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.38 · official $30.38 (match) · 153 history records