Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
00 0x00cf…5655 crypto 49 markets active 6d ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+6%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%34W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% +$48
crypto 6% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 5% $0
other 5% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 92% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 92% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 92% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +2.0% -7.7% 89% 5% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 5% -4.2%
10% -16.6% 3% -13.4%
15% -24.6% 3% -21.7%
20% -32.0% 0% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×43.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1494.42 per $1 lost it wins $1494.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses34 / 4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)38 / 49
History coverage597d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $121 +$24 +20%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 25? Jan 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jan 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Jan 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? Jan 18 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4500 on August 20? Oct 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ursula von der Leyen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 25 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $120K on August 20? Oct 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Oct 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Oct 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $48 +$24 +50%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the People-Animals-Nature Party win the most seats in the 2025 Po Apr 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Mar 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 29 $205 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Oct 22 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 6d
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 6d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 6d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $46 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.68 · official $60.68 (match) · 234 history records