Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00d2…b8c6 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$285 (-11%) realized −$319 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%21W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$389
14 days−$389
30 days−$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$152
other 27% −$49
politics 27% +$141
world 8% −$60
crypto 7% −$145
economics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -37.2% -43.2% 26% 26% -57.0%
≤30d 29 -28.0% -34.8% 28% 28% -55.3%
≤90d 29 -28.0% -34.8% 28% 28% -55.3%
all 88 -15.2% -23.3% 24% 20% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 20% -24.9%
10% -30.7% 19% -32.1%
15% -37.4% 19% -38.6%
20% -43.5% 15% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$17 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses21 / 67
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 96
History coverage587d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 51¢ 100¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+96%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 90¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+60%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 +$11 +46%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$21 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$37 +217%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $121 −$119 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$65 +219%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $14 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 +$9 +41%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 +$64 +248%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $26 −$26 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 −$26 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $88 −$88 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $33 −$32 -98%
Will GroenLinks (GL) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal May 24 $3 +$1 +46%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $27 +$106 +398%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the April mee Mar 10 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 24 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municip Feb 15 $3 +$5 +191%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will DENK win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election? Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Volt Netherlands (Volt) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 mu Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will BIJ1 win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election? Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will JA21 win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election? Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Socialist Party (SP) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 m Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Forum for Democracy (FvD) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) win the most seats in Amste Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 01 $623 +$175 +28%
Will the US strike Cuba next? Feb 01 $12 −$7 -58%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in January? Jan 31 $2 +$12 +777%
Will the US strike Venezuela next? Jan 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 31 $12 +$12 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $25 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $25 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $24 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $28 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $54 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $19 21h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 23h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $101 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $94 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $19 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 16¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $18 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côt BUY 20¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.94 · official $115.93 · 644 history records