Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00d2…fe64 sports 1074 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,618 (-6%) realized −$1,479 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%369W / 690L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$346est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$274
14 days−$349
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,723
other 13% −$56
culture 1% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -26.6% -33.6% 26% 25% -30.7%
≤30d 272 -22.3% -29.7% 33% 33% -13.9%
≤90d 1059 -12.1% -20.5% 35% 32% -15.2%
all 1059 -12.1% -20.5% 35% 32% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 32% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 30% -23.3%
15% -35.0% 26% -30.7%
20% -41.4% 23% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$1,479
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses369 / 690
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$346
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1059 / 1074
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1059 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 62¢ $52 $64 +$12 (+23%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ 14¢ $159 $48 −$111 (-70%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 3¢ 96¢ $2 $48 +$46 (+2903%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 76¢ 80¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Kevin Borjas 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ 48¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 43¢ 45¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Eliakim Coulibaly 29¢ 24¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 50¢ 24¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-53%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ 51¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 44¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Mitch Raposo 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Alex Santino Nunez 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 45¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Alvaro Guillen Meza 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 293 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Longhorns (W) Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 16 $0 $0 +376%
Miami Open: Katie Boulter vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 16 $0 −$1 -248%
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Eastern Washington Eagles (W) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier B: Mexico vs Cayman Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Kings vs. Rockets Jun 16 $0 −$1 -719%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 16 $25 −$1 -5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $0 +$1 +134%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $33 +$18 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $271 −$270 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $4 +$8 +180%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $158 +$148 +93%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $60 +$96 +158%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 14 $0 $0 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$3 +119%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $19 −$18 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $48 +$46 +97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $19 −$19 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 11 $79 −$77 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $2 +$3 +226%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $38 −$2 -6%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $27 +$25 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $13 +$14 +109%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $13 +$55 +438%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 37¢ $6 2m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $3 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Alex Santino Nunez 6¢ $1 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $6 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $5 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $5 3h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 29¢ $12 3h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 28¢ $3 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Minnesota Lynx 60¢ $17 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 61¢ $18 3h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $25 4h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $9 4h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 49¢ $25 4h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $25 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Minnesota Lynx 57¢ $7 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 60¢ $7 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $11 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $25 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $25 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $25 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $25 6h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $0 6h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 35¢ $2 9h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 18¢ $3 10h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 19¢ $3 10h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 18¢ $4 10h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 19¢ $4 10h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 19¢ $4 10h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $0 10h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 18¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.33 · official $328.96 · 3500 history records