Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00d2…fb50 world 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,867 (+4%) realized +$13,214 · open −$6,347
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%56W / 33L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,563per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$7,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,206
7 days−$1,489
14 days−$1,354
30 days+$6,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$7,546
finance 19% −$306
sports 8% −$2,848
other 2% +$558
economics 1% +$451
culture 0% −$81
crypto 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.1% +25.0% 33% 33% -54.5%
≤30d 22 +5.9% -4.2% 64% 32% -0.3%
≤90d 74 +21.3% +9.7% 64% 34% -0.6%
all 89 +18.2% +6.9% 63% 34% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 34% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -3.3% 25% -10.4%
15% -12.6% 20% -19.0%
20% -21.2% 18% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,555) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$226 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$7,909
Realized+$13,214
Unrealized−$6,347
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses56 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions12
Markets (closed)89 / 101
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,563
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 52¢ $3,169 $2,450 −$719 (-23%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 42¢ 20¢ $3,866 $1,893 −$1,973 (-51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $838 $832 −$6 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 92¢ $694 $799 +$105 (+15%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 73¢ 14¢ $3,579 $660 −$2,919 (-82%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 60¢ 74¢ $423 $519 +$96 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $584 $306 −$278 (-48%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $583 $273 −$310 (-53%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $193 $74 −$120 (-62%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $237 $73 −$163 (-69%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 34¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+11350%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $90 $9 −$81 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- Jun 20 $254 −$197 -78%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $2,476 −$2,009 -81%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 16 $263 +$717 +273%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $1,722 +$286 +17%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $166 +$1 +1%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $155 −$152 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $3,752 +$157 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 05 $257 −$47 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 04 $1,429 −$280 -20%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $10,307 +$1,132 +11%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $3,988 +$4,600 +115%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 31 $292 +$143 +49%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $6,643 +$1,006 +15%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J May 30 $279 +$238 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $1,924 +$60 +3%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 27 $430 −$140 -33%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 27 $363 +$1 +0%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $426 −$416 -98%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $1,748 +$128 +7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 24 $191 −$74 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $24,829 +$1,237 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $1,718 +$125 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 22 $2,066 +$194 +9%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu May 19 $2,417 +$201 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 18 $712 +$651 +91%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 15 $1,555 +$310 +20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $204 −$199 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 12 $4,788 +$583 +12%
Fed rate hike in 2026? May 07 $499 +$46 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $6,695 +$170 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $28 −$27 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 04 $994 −$54 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $2,121 +$354 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 01 $490 +$10 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 01 $4,250 +$99 +2%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Apr 29 $120 +$134 +112%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $103 +$5 +5%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Apr 29 $331 +$1,107 +334%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 28 $2,705 +$169 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1,001 +$87 +9%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 23 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $420 −$139 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $4,084 +$2,111 +52%
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 22 $332 −$318 -96%
Will Mathieu van der Poel win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Apr 21 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $9 +$54 +572%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 21 $101 +$30 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 14 $107 −$67 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 14 $1,295 +$33 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $66 11m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $11 27m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $22 30m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $370 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $513 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 57¢ $37 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 57¢ $499 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $495 18h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL Yes 2¢ $26 24h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL Yes 6¢ $18 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $280 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $198 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $36 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $14 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $0 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $155 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $74 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $2 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $3 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $3 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $40 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $66 43h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL Yes 6¢ $7 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $50 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $1 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $1 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $5 44h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $6 44h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 19¢ $9 44h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $457 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,908.85 · official $7,908.85 (match) · 1217 history records