Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00d4…3275 crypto 297 markets active 3h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%289W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$24
14 days+$37
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$31
other 10% −$62
finance 9% −$12
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 137 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 297 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 0% -10.2%
all 297 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses289 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage67d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 97¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 1522 history records