Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00d4…4c46 sports 762 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,440 (+24%) realized +$11,491 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%310W / 449L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day119.1pace
Fees−$865est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$5,166
other 1% −$254
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +1.7% -7.9% 43% 41% +4.8%
≤30d 759 -3.0% -12.3% 41% 40% -0.2%
≤90d 759 -3.0% -12.3% 41% 40% -0.2%
all 759 -3.0% -12.3% 41% 40% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 40% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 38% -9.7%
15% -28.3% 35% -18.4%
20% -35.3% 29% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$39 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$11,491
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses310 / 449
Est. fees paid−$865
Open positions3
Markets (closed)759 / 762
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day119.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 759 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner xept 30¢ 50¢ $33 $54 +$21 (+63%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B xept 21¢ 50¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+136%)
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Kia Tigers 21¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $58 −$9 -15%
ITF Mohammedia: Luna Vujovic vs Daria Egorova Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Lucie Pawlak Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $28 +$11 +39%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $84 +$84 +100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$8 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $28 +$11 +39%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $8 +$11 +144%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +212%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $114 +$50 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $88 −$38 -44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $29 +$25 +87%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $27 +$39 +142%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $223 −$76 -34%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $113 −$58 -51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $145 −$40 -28%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $29 +$14 +48%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $112 +$62 +55%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
ITF Dinard: Carla Grignac vs Margaux Maquet Jun 19 $30 +$10 +33%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $5 +$7 +160%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi Jun 19 $20 +$16 +83%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $327 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$55 +187%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $55 +$129 +237%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $26 +$73 +281%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $221 +$144 +65%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $28 +$17 +62%
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 19 $80 +$326 +408%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $35 +$39 +113%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 19 $28 +$38 +136%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 99¢ $40 42m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 71¢ $28 42m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Power Rangers 99¢ $168 1h
ITF Mohammedia: Luna Vujovic vs Daria Egorova BUY Luna Vujovic 2¢ $6 1h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 11¢ $22 1h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 21¢ $25 1h
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Lucie Pawlak BUY Victoria Milovanova 1¢ $3 1h
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Lucie Pawlak BUY Victoria Milovanova 13¢ $26 1h
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Lucie Pawlak BUY Victoria Milovanova 37¢ $28 1h
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Lucie Pawlak BUY Victoria Milovanova 41¢ $27 1h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 71¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY Clutchain 31¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Paula Badosa 66¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 21¢ $3 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Paula Badosa 53¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY xept 33¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY xept 33¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY xept 22¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY xept 22¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 99¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 79¢ $30 3h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 31¢ $27 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 99¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 71¢ $28 3h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 5¢ $15 4h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 100¢ $19 9h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 41¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.48 · official $61.48 (match) · 3500 history records