Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x00d8…e853 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$9
politics 30% −$4
world 9% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$873) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage82d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $1,218 −$3 -0%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w May 14 $927 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $886 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $873 $0 -0%
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera May 12 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 12 $934 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Apr 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1,215 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $1,166 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $19 2h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $903 2h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $288 2h
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $36 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $33 3h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 3h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 37d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 37d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $35 37d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 37d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 37d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 37d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 39d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $22 39d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $21 39d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $32 39d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $21 39d
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $15 40d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 40d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records