Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00d9…0b99 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 34% -17.2%
≤30d 50 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 34% -17.2%
≤90d 50 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 34% -17.2%
all 50 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 34% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 34% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 30% -25.1%
15% -44.6% 16% -32.3%
20% -50.1% 8% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $34 +$17 +50%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$1 -8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$3 -23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$3 -31%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 $0 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13 −$5 -35%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$3 -51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$5 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$10 -39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$28 +139%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$2 -12%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $11 −$5 -42%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$1 -16%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$2 +23%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 -32%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$2 -51%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$8 -71%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$10 +57%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$6 -78%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $12 +$5 +41%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$15 -93%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $4 −$1 -33%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +127%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$5 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $47 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $30 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $4 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 36¢ $3 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $6 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 54¢ $5 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 96¢ $11 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 91¢ $10 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 19¢ $1 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $2 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $8 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $5 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $5 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ $5 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 79¢ $4 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $4 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $1 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 32¢ $2 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 56¢ $11 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 27¢ $2 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 98¢ $14 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 72¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 58¢ $4 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 59¢ $5 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 22¢ $2 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 46¢ $4 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 56¢ $4 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 38¢ $9 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 188 history records