Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
00 0x00d9…764a other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$177 (+28%) realized +$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$121
sports 9% +$42
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 50% +13.4%
≤30d 30 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 50% +13.4%
≤90d 30 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 50% +13.4%
all 30 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 50% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 50% +13.4%
10% -7.9% 47% +2.6%
15% -16.8% 37% -7.3%
20% -25.0% 27% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$6 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 +$26 +92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$28 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$50 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$50 +214%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$21 +345%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$14 +99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$22 -79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $37 +$4 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$13 +53%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$14 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $26 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $34 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $36 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $29 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 42h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $26 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $55 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $57 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records