Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00da…4af0 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$641 (-37%) realized −$641 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$477
crypto 30% −$202
sports 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -24.8% -32.0% 44% 36% -44.8%
≤30d 25 -24.8% -32.0% 44% 36% -44.8%
≤90d 25 -24.8% -32.0% 44% 36% -44.8%
all 25 -24.8% -32.0% 44% 36% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 36% -44.8%
10% -38.5% 32% -50.1%
15% -44.4% 24% -54.9%
20% -49.9% 20% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$77 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$641
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$15 +94%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $509 −$509 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $58 −$58 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 28 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$44 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $408 +$287 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records